Marion, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

542
FXUS61 KCLE 060824
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
424 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move through the Central Great Lakes today with a
cold front settling south behind it late tonight through Monday. The
front will stall south of the area on Tuesday as high pressure
builds in from the north. The above mentioned front will waver north
and south through the end of the week and result in an active
weather pattern.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Above normal temperatures continue for one more day as we remain in
the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. Most areas will
see highs in the low 90s today as the upper ridge continues to shift
east. While dewpoints in the east will mix out some, locations
in the west and near Lake Erie will hold steady or creep up
into the upper 60s to near 70s degrees and push heat indices
into the upper 90s, extending as far east as Cleveland. In
additions skies will tend to be mostly sunny until cloud cover
and chances of precipitation arrive from the west later in the
afternoon.

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving through the
Upper Midwest with a surface trough extending from northern Lake
Huron to west of Chicago this morning. A capping inversion along
with dry air in the mid-levels will limit thunderstorms potential
until deeper moisture along a prefrontal trough moves into NW Ohio
during the late afternoon and early evening. Depending on cloud
cover, ML CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg are likely in NW Ohio. NW
Ohio will also reside on the southern periphery of stronger mid-
level winds over lower Michigan and can not rule out a storm or two
with 50-60 mph wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has
highlighted areas from the I-75 corridor east to about Port Clinton
with a marginal risk of Severe Weather today.

Activity is expected to dwindle overnight with the loss of heating
and an overall weakening of the shortwave aloft. The front stalls
out across NW Ohio until the next shortwave trough arrives and
pushes the front through the local area on Monday. Showers will
develop on Monday as both daytime heating and convergence along the
surface boundary increase again. By midday expect to see good
coverage of showers and thunderstorms towards the I-71 corridor
which will move east through the afternoon. The airmass will be
moist with dewpoints at or above 70 degrees and PW values that look
to exceed 2 inches. Some training is also possible with storm motion
aligned parallel to the front. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding
will be a concern with thunderstorms on Monday afternoon. In
addition, will need to monitor any stronger thunderstorms for
damaging winds with wet microbursts. Localized pockets of 1-2" of
rain are certainly possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The front and associated precipitation will push south of the area
on Monday night with high pressure building in for Tuesday.
Temperatures will be back to near normal values for highs with
dewpoints at least settling back into the low to mid 60s. This will
not entirely relieve the humidity but will feel noticeably cooler
than the Holiday weekend. The forecast is dry through Tuesday night
and lows in the low to mid 60s will be well received.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An active weather pattern is setting up for the remainder of the
long term forecast. The upper air pattern transitions from a ridge
over the western United States and a broad trough over eastern
Canada to a quasi-zonal flow aloft to end the week. Chances of
showers and thunderstorms return to the local area on Wednesday
as a shortwave moves through the Ohio Valley and moisture
spreads back north into the forecast area. Timing and placement
of precipitation is unclear but scattered thunderstorms are
likely during the afternoon. Typical summer heat and humidity
will allow for additional thunderstorms on Thursday but may be
located more inland as the trough axis to the north pivots
through the eastern Great Lakes. This is followed on Friday and
Saturday with a series of shortwaves aloft. Any details will be
hard to resolve at this time scale but will need pops through
the end of the forecast. Temperatures through the long term will
tend to be near normal values for mid July.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Conditions are VFR across the airspace this morning with high
cirrus filtering through the terminals and south to southwest
flow across the region. Winds remain elevated this morning and
surface temperature/dew point spreads remain significant where
fog development this morning remains unlikely and have a VFR
forecast through the morning and into the afternoon. During the
afternoon, a cold front will approach from the west and the
increased pressure gradient should allow for southwest winds to
increase and some gusts over 20 kt will be possible across the
board. Later on, some showers and storms should develop ahead of
the front during the peak daytime heating. These should extend
into Northwest Ohio in some capacity with TS and MVFR chances
for KTOL and KFDY; however, there are coverage concerns. A
stabilizing atmosphere later in the evening will limit how far
east any rain or TS may get. There is a chance that some
marginal MVFR TS could get to KCLE with convection becoming
elevated over nearby Lake Erie. Other than that, have kept the
TAFs dry and VFR. Clouds will overspread the area late in the
TAF period with ceilings for most by 06z Monday.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with showers and thunderstorms on
Monday. Additional non-VFR possible on Wednesday and Thursday
with primarily afternoon and evening convection chances.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest flow remains over the lake and will increase to
10 to 15 kts this afternoon as a cold front approaches from the
west. The front will cross the lake tonight into Monday and winds
will shift to the west then northwest. There should be a push of 10
to 15 kt northwest winds during the daytime on Monday that will
allow for waves to build to at least 2 ft and there could be some
isolated 3 ft conditions for the central basin. With the front,
there will be the potential for some showers and storms, but
overall, the severe threat appears low. For Tuesday, the front will
stall well south of the lake and high pressure will meander north of
the basin, which should allow for flow to weaken and become
variable. The front will advance north on Wednesday and winds should
become offshore again. The front will then push back south for
Thursday and flow will become north to northeast on the lake.
Overall, there are no marine headline concerns at this time through
Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic